Going Down?

File under: events, Wellington

As anyone who's been anywhere near Wellington (or read The Wellingtonista) recently will know, tomorrow's the day that the frigate Wellington will go to Davey Jones' locker, or "the bottom of Island Bay" as we scientists call it. This image (click for a bigger version) shows the exact location, and might hint at some good vantage points. Hey, I think I can see Grabthar Heights from here!

Being Wellington, of course, the weather may have it's say. According to the Sink F69 site, the weather criteria for sinking are reasonably broad, and since there won't be a southerly wind or significant swell, the only worry will be keeping the northerly to under 20 knots (37 km/h for you landlubbers). It's currently 24 knots gusting 36 at the airport, and while the official inshore marine forecast (you'd think that James of all people would know to link to that!) has it dropping off tomorrow evening, the question is: will it have eased enough by 3pm?

The current aviation forecast only goes out to 1pm, and doesn't have it easing before then. NOAA's GFS model (this meteogram comes from a page that uses word verification, so I can't link to it directly, but you can create your own from this page by entering "NZWN" in the "ICAO or WMO ID" box) shows the wind easing off during the afternoon, but it's unlikely to have the resolution to model Wellington's (ahem) "interesting" microclimate with much accuracy, so I'd take its forecast of under 15kt for sink time with a pinch of salt (spray). So, it's looking like it will be touch and go, and the forecast rain might deter some spectators, but the spectacle should be worth the risk, so jump on the number 1 or number 23 and take a look.